Branch Satiety Curve

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Canon · Doctrine 2.0Added in version 1.0

Definition

The Branch Satiety Curve is the plot of the marginal value of each additional branch in one trade area: the new branch's contribution minus what it takes from sister branches and the added cost of a denser network. Where it crosses zero, the trade area is sated and a new branch relocates revenue instead of creating it.

In plain words

The point where another branch in the same area adds nothing and just splits the same customers.

Also searched as

satiety point
branch satiety
trade-area saturation
S_b
نقطة التشبّع

Try it on your numbers

The Branch Gate applies this rule before you sign the next branch lease: five numbers about the site and one of three verdicts, sign, sign with conditions, or not yet.

Try the Branch Gate on your numbers

Formula

S_b = R_new − (C_cannibal + O_friction)

Variables

S_b: marginal value of the next branch
R_new: the new branch's contribution
C_cannibal: contribution it removes from sister branches
O_friction: added cost of a denser network: supervision, logistics, stock and staff moves

Canonical thresholds

Gate 4: densify, hold or stopPlaybook default, to calibrate
Threshold	Verdict
S_b > 0 and nearest branches ≥ 80% at peak	Densify
S_b > 0, no capacity signal	Hold: grow the existing branches first
S_b ≤ 0	Stop: the trade area has reached satiety

Source: Playbook §2 · Gate 4: Satiety and cannibalization within a city

Opening gate: payback on S_bDoctrine default
Threshold	Verdict
All four tests pass, ≤ 18 months	Sign
18–30 months	Sign only with a written lever plan (rent, capex or format)
Any test fails	“Not yet”

Source: Doctrine §5 · The opening gate · Playbook §2 · Gate 2: Site selection and catchment

Example

Illustrative example · hypothetical figures

R_new SAR 45,000 a month, C_cannibal SAR 4,500, O_friction SAR 6,000: S_b = SAR 34,500. On capex of SAR 1,200,000, payback on S_b is 34.8 months: not yet.

Where it is used

In the Doctrine and the Playbook

In the Channel Ledger

Ledger §9 · Delivery radius and the Satiety Curve

In Beneath Marketing

Your customer isn't falling down a funnel. They're circling a roundabout.Beneath Marketing · Episode 0 · Six questions instead of four stages

Related terms

How to cite this definition

Alhajj, S. (2026). “Branch Satiety Curve”. In The Revenue Engineering Lexicon, version 1.0. Riyadh. https://seiflden.com/lexicon/branch-satiety-curve/

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